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Prevailing Winds Blog

Prevailing Winds is a China-focused blog written by Nicholas Borst, Director of China Research at Seafarer. The blog tracks the economic and financial developments shaping the world’s largest emerging market. Learn more about Prevailing Winds.

How Exposed Are U.S. Investors to China?

U.S. investors are more exposed to China than the official statistics indicate, but far less exposed than some policymakers and the media may imagine.

How Exposed Are U.S. Investors to China?

Visualizing China’s A-Share Market Selloffs

China’s stock market corrections in 2015 and 2018 illustrate the volatility and peculiar tendencies of the A-share market.

A Tale of Two Corrections

China’s Hidden Government Debt

Local government off-balance sheet borrowing – both a channel of economic stimulus and a source of acute financial risks – complicates measurements of overall government debt in China.

China’s Hidden Government Debt

Testimony – What Keeps Xi Up at Night

In testimony to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Nicholas Borst describes the array of challenges facing the Chinese economy and the structural reforms that would help China achieve sustainable economic growth.

Looking Back on China’s 2018

Looking Back on China’s 2018

China experienced a tumultuous 2018 full of headwinds that drove down equity markets and economic sentiment, but trade growth and private sector resilience remain positive long-term trends.

Looking Back on China’s 2018

Tracking China’s External Debt

China leads the emerging markets in external debt, but a closer analysis reveals that China’s foreign borrowing is less risky than it appears, and is manageable relative to the size of the economy.

Tracking China’s External Debt

China’s Private Sector is Feeling the Pinch

While new government policies in China may ease the financing challenges faced by the private sector, truly leveling the playing field between private and state-owned enterprises will require structural reforms and take years to implement.

China’s Private Sector is Feeling the Pinch

How Artificial Intelligence is Shaping Industries Across China

China has rapidly emerged as a world-class innovator in the field of artificial intelligence and is at the forefront of applying AI to solve real world business problems.

How Artificial Intelligence is Shaping Industries Across China

China’s Tech Rush

China’s campaign to advance its technological capabilities has the potential to transform many emerging high-tech industries through an unprecedented level of government support and cooperation with the private sector.

China’s Tech Rush

How Open Are China’s Capital Markets to Foreign Investment?

The current stock market correction in China is serving as a useful test of the commitment of policymakers to maintaining recent financial reforms in the face of financial volatility.

How Open Are China’s Capital Markets to Foreign Investment?

China’s Crackdown on Financial Risks

Following financial shocks in China in 2015 and 2016, Chinese authorities have taken steps to reduce risks across the financial system and slow the growth rate of credit, particularly in the shadow banking system.

China’s Crackdown on Financial Risks

Fixing China’s Municipal Bond Market

A viable municipal bond market has developed in China, in response to the growing fiscal needs of local governments – but challenges remain, including high levels of borrowing and the availability of long-term financing.

Fixing China’s Municipal Bond Market

China’s Investment Numbers Don’t Add Up

While each release of China’s fixed asset investment numbers generates news headlines, the data should be treated with a healthy dose of skepticism until China completes reforms to its statistical methodology.

China’s Investment Numbers Don’t Add Up

Forty Years Later: China in a New Era

The recent China Development Forum celebrated China’s economic achievements, but it also highlighted a large shift occurring across China: the Communist Party’s reassertion of control over the government.

Forty Years Later: China in a New Era

Welcome to Prevailing Winds

For emerging markets investors, no country is more important to get right than China. Prevailing Winds will track the complex and contradictory forces that are shaping the Chinese economy.

Welcome